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Subscriber Values:
Q4 2004
CLEC valuations are declining in a pro-monopoly
environment.
Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of Top
U.S. ISPs and from company reports (and are as of December 31, 2004). Market
capitalization data is as of market close, March 23, 2005, as reported on
Yahoo! Finance.
Further
notes on ISP data
ISP
Subscriber Value: $223*
(ISP
subscriber values with AOL would average $1,107 per subscriber.) |
|
Stock Symbol
|
ISP
|
Value
per subscriber
|
Market Cap
(millions)
|
Number
of subscribers
|
|
[TWX]
|
AOL*
|
$2,874
|
$82,040
|
28,546,000
|
|
[ELNK]
|
EarthLink
|
$241
|
$1,300
|
5,388,000
|
|
[UNTD]
|
United Online*
|
$206
|
$637
|
3,100,000
|
|
* In response
to a suggestion by Tom Millitzer of New
Commerce Communications, we show subscriber values without AOL in large
print, and with AOL in small print.
*
AOL subscriber numbers do not include RoadRunner; AOL did not declare subscriber
numbers for CompuServe.
* We
count only paying subscribers for the United Online.
|
Our CLEC
listings require close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies,
including Covad, and we welcome your comments.
Further
notes on CLEC data
|
CLEC
Subscriber Value: $937
|
|
Stock Symbol
|
CLEC
|
Value
per subscriber
|
Market Cap
(millions)
|
Number
of subscribers
|
|
[CLEC]
|
US LEC
|
$2,169
|
$82
|
38,000
|
|
[CTL]
|
CentruyTel
|
$1,246
|
$4,390
|
3,524,018
|
|
[GNCMA]
|
General Communications
|
$996
|
$492
|
493,842
|
|
[ALSK]
|
The ACS Group
|
$881
|
$370
|
419,755
|
|
[COVD]
|
Covad
|
$616
|
$328
|
533,200
|
|
[MPE]
|
Mpower
|
$428
|
$115
|
268,000
|
|
[TALK]
|
Talk.com
|
$226
|
$848
|
693,000
|
|
ISP
Sale Prices
|
|
Buyer/Seller
|
Price
(dollars)
|
Number
of subscribers
|
Value per
subscriber |
|
US LEC (CLEC)/
FASTNET (Dec 17, 2003)
|
$8,500,000
|
c. 3,000 plus two data centers plus 20,000 dialup
subs
|
$370 (with zero value for data centers)
|
|
DSL.net (DSLN)/NAS
(Jan. 10, 2003)
|
$14,000,000
|
11,500
|
$1,217
|
|
EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky (Jan 2002)
|
$5,000,000
|
32,000
|
$156
|
FULO/
LAWTONNET (Feb 2001) |
$31,793
|
700
|
$45
|
| FULO/SONET (Feb
2001) |
$49,399
|
900
|
$55
|
|
FULO/RECTEC (Nov 2001)
|
$92,394
|
1,400
|
$66
|
US LEC acquired
FASTNET, closing on December 17, 2003. The company paid $8.5 million, of which
$6 million was cash, for about 3,000 high-value business customers and two data
centers, plus 20,000 dialup accounts, some of which also had shared hosting
accouts. The purchase price reflects the costs of the data centers as much as
anything else, and is therfore not a good guide to current prices for a business
that does not, itself, own a data center.
DSL.net says
that it paid $9 million in cash and $4 million in debt for the network assets
and subscriber lines of Network Access Systems, purchased out of bankruptcy
court in a transaction that closed on January 10, 2003. The assets included
equipment in 300 central offices and 11,500 DSL subscriber lines. The cost of
hiring 78 former NAS employees is not included in the $14 million purchase price.
Nevertheless, this shows that broadband subscribers are worth more than dialup,
in spite of the fact that dialup subscribers are usually more profitable.
OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink
in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates
that in 2001, EarthLink paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with
a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates
are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers.
This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup as it does
mobile wireless subscribers.
Fullnet declared
the price of several purchases made during 2001. We list them here because they
are the most recent reliable data for the purchase of small ISPs that we have
seen. All of the small ISPs listed provided services to both business and residential
customers. Unfortunately, the company did not publish subscriber numbers and
is therefore not on our list of subscriber values.
End
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