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ISP Market Research

Subscriber Values: November 2004

The market has been remarkably stable, although if regulations change, stock prices will also change.

by Alex Goldman
ISP-Planet Managing Editor
[November 22, 2004]
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Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of Top U.S. ISPs and from company reports (and are as of September 30, 2004). Market capitalization data is as of market close, Tuesday November 16, 2004, as reported on Yahoo! Finance.

Further notes on ISP data

ISP Subscriber Value:  $248*
(ISP subscriber values with AOL would average $1,057 per subscriber.)

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[TWX]

AOL*

$2,674

$79,470

29,714,000

[UNTD]

EarthLink

$291

$1,570

5,402,000

[ELNK]

United Online*

$205

$656

3,200,000

* In response to a suggestion by Tom Millitzer of New Commerce Communications, we show subscriber values without AOL in large print, and with AOL in small print.
* AOL subscriber numbers do not include RoadRunner; AOL did not declare subscriber numbers for CompuServe.
*
We report only paying subscribers for the United Online. The company claims 6.6 million active users (combined paying and free subscribers).

Go America is back on the list, reporting subscriber numbers that have fallen rapidly. It last reported having 81,371 subscribers

Mobile Wireless ISP Subscriber Value:  $322

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[GOAM]

GoAmerica

$322

$19

60,171

Our CLEC listings require close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies, including Covad, and we welcome your comments.

Further notes on CLEC data

CLEC Subscriber Value:  $1,114

Stock Symbol

CLEC

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[CLEC]

US LEC

$2,917

$107

36,600

[GNCMA]

General Communications

$1,601

$553

345,758

[CTL]

CentruyTel

$1,279

$4,470

3,494,679

[COVD]

Covad

$855

$448

524,000

[ALSK]

The ACS Group

$486

$201

412,912

[MPE]

Mpower

$423

$113

268,000

[TALK]

Talk.com

$237

$162

683,000

US LEC acquired FASTNET, closing on December 17, 2003. The company paid $8.5 million, of which $6 million was cash, for about 3,000 high-value business customers and two data centers, plus 20,000 dialup accounts, some of which also had shared hosting accouts. The purchase price reflects the costs of the data centers as much as anything else, and is therfore not a good guide to current prices for a business that does not, itself, own a data center.

DSL.net says that it paid $9 million in cash and $4 million in debt for the network assets and subscriber lines of Network Access Systems, purchased out of bankruptcy court in a transaction that closed on January 10, 2003. The assets included equipment in 300 central offices and 11,500 DSL subscriber lines. The cost of hiring 78 former NAS employees is not included in the $14 million purchase price. Nevertheless, this shows that broadband subscribers are worth more than dialup, in spite of the fact that dialup subscribers are usually more profitable.

OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates that in 2001, EarthLink paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers. This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup as it does mobile wireless subscribers.

Fullnet declared the price of several purchases made during 2001. We list them here because they are the most recent reliable data for the purchase of small ISPs that we have seen. All of the small ISPs listed provided services to both business and residential customers. Unfortunately, the company did not publish subscriber numbers and is therefore not on our list of subscriber values.

ISP Sale Prices

Buyer/Seller

Price
(dollars)

Number of subscribers

Value per subscriber

US LEC (CLEC)/
FASTNET
(Dec 17, 2003)

$8,500,000

c. 3,000 plus two data centers plus 20,000 dialup subs

$370 (with zero value for data centers)

DSL.net (DSLN)/NAS
(Jan. 10, 2003)

$14,000,000

11,500

$1,217

EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky
(Jan 2002)

$5,000,000

32,000

$156

FULO/
LAWTONNET
(Feb 2001)
$31,793
700
$45
FULO/SONET (Feb 2001)
$49,399
900
$55

FULO/RECTEC (Nov 2001)

$92,394

1,400

$66

—End

Related articles:
  [Nov. 16, 2004] Your Free Washington Bureau For ISP Advocacy
  [May 7, 2004] Data Shows Independent ISPs Have Low Churn
  [July 10, 2003] What Happened to Log On America?

Online resources:
  DSL Subscriber Numbers
  History of Subscriber Values
  Jupiter Research: Broadband
  Top U.S. ISPs by Subscriber
  Wall Street Research Network

 

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