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ISP Market Research

Subscriber Values: January 2004

Subscriber values have generally risen, but some ISPs are doing better than others.

ISP-Planet Staff
[January 29, 2004]
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Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of Top U.S. ISPs and from company reports (and are as of September 30, 2003). Market capitalization data is as of market close, Monday January 26, 2004, as reported on Yahoo! Finance.

Further notes on ISP data

ISP Subscriber Value:  $917
(ISP subscriber values without AOL would average $335 per subscriber.)

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[TWX]

AOL*

$2,663

$86,230

32,384,000

[UNTD]

United Online*

$493

$1,330

2,700,000

[ELNK]

EarthLink

$354

$1,770

5,000,000

[GEEK]

Internet America

$158

$12

76,000

* AOL subscriber numbers may or may not include RoadRunner; AOL did not declare subscriber numbers for CompuServe.
*
Juno and NetZero have merged into United Online. We report only paying subscribers for the merged company. The company claims 5.2 million active users (combined paying and free subscribers).

Go America's stock rose sharply as the company continued to cut costs and subscribers.

Mobile Wireless ISP Subscriber Value:  $420

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[GOAM]

GoAmerica

$420

$34

81,371

RCN is cutting costs and selling assets. Its stock fell sharply, and the number of subscribers barely budged, although it continues to add broadband and shed dialup subscribers.

Cable ISP Subscriber Value:  $329

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[RCNC]
RCN
$329
$130
395,837

Our CLEC listings require close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies, including Covad, and we welcome your comments.

Further notes on CLEC data

CLEC Subscriber Value:  $2,335

Stock Symbol

CLEC

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[CLEC]

US LEC

$12,800

$217

17,000

[COVD]

Covad

$1,731

$925

534,200

[CTL]

CentruyTel

$1,447

$4,550

3,145,200

[GNCMA]

General Communications

$1,230

$558

453,600

[MPOW]

Mpower Communications

$517

$135

260,000

[TALK]

Talk.com

$312

$631

495,000

[ALSK]

The ACS Group

$322

$128

397,224

[COMMQ]

ATX Corporation

$5

$6

1,107,100

US LEC acquired FASTNET, closing on December 17, 2003. The company paid $8.5 million, of which $6 million was cash, for about 3,000 high-value business customers and two data centers, plus 20,000 dialup accounts, some of which also had shared hosting accouts. The purchase price reflects the costs of the data centers as much as anything else, and is therfore not a good guide to current prices for a business that does not, itself, own a data center.

DSL.net says that it paid $9 million in cash and $4 million in debt for the network assets and subscriber lines of Network Access Systems, purchased out of bankruptcy court in a transaction that closed on January 10, 2003. The assets included equipment in 300 central offices and 11,500 DSL subscriber lines. The cost of hiring 78 former NAS employees is not included in the $14 million purchase price. Nevertheless, this shows that broadband subscribers are worth more than dialup, in spite of the fact that dialup subscribers are usually more profitable.

OmniSky, a mobile wireless ISP, was in Chapter 11 when it was acquired by EarthLink in January, 2002. At its peak, OmniSky was valued at $1.6 billion. Forbes estimates that in 2001, EarthLink paid about $150 per subscriber for 36 other ISPs with a total subscriber count of 304,000, a total of $46 million. If Forbes' estimates are correct, the average size of the acquired ISPs would be 8,500 subscribers. This data suggests that EarthLink pays the same price for dialup as it does mobile wireless subscribers.

Fullnet declared the price of several purchases made during 2001. We list them here because they are the most recent reliable data for the purchase of small ISPs that we have seen. All of the small ISPs listed provided services to both business and residential customers. Unfortunately, the company did not publish subscriber numbers and is therefore not on our list of subscriber values.

ISP Sale Prices

Buyer/Seller

Price
(dollars)

Number of subscribers

Value per subscriber

US LEC (CLEC)/
FASTNET
(Dec 17, 2003)

$8,500,000

c. 3,000 plus two data centers plus 20,000 dialup subs

$2,833 or $370 (with dialups included)

DSL.net (DSLN)/NAS
(Jan. 10, 2003)

$14,000,000

11,500

$1,217

EarthLink (ELNK)/
OmniSky
(Jan 2002)

$5,000,000

32,000

$156

FULO/
LAWTONNET
(Feb 2001)
$31,793
700
$45
FULO/SONET (Feb 2001)
$49,399
900
$55

FULO/RECTEC (Nov 2001)

$92,394

1,400

$66

Not on the list
On December 31, 2002, New Haven, Conn.-based DSL.net served approximately 22,100 installed broadband subscriber lines. It has not changed its subscriber numbers since.

Waynesboro, Virginia-based NTELOS Corp. has been delisted, the stock no longer exists, and the company is no longer on our list.

Other notes
At this point in time, ISPs and CLECs have filed financial disclosures concerning their subscriber numbers as of June 30, 2003, and we use those numbers in our research.

This page is intended as a reference guide, which is why we show not only the results of our calculations but also our methods of making the calculations. Readers can rearrange the numbers as they wish.

—End

Related articles:
  [Dec. 11, 2003] An Exit Strategy for Dialup ISPs
  [July 10, 2003] What Happened to Log On America?
  [June 20, 2003] Cisco, VCs Take Over as Cogent Restructures

Online resources:
  DSL Subscriber Numbers
  History of Subscriber Values
  Jupiter Research: Broadband
  Top U.S. ISPs by Subscriber
  Wall Street Research Network

 

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