How will the close of NetZero's merger with Juno Online
impact our Top U.S. ISP Ranking? Let's take a look at the numbers from
our Q1 2001 data and see whether this deal lands United Online at the
bottom or top of the heap.
First, we'll need to hone down our regular Top
20 U.S. ISP Rank by eliminating cable modem and free ISP services.
That way, we'll be analyzing narrowband subscriber counts, for the most
part. From there, we're only going to count paying subscribers for Juno
and NetZero.
This means some of the other ISPs subscriber bases may be bloated with
non-paying users currently counted as subscribers. For example, MSN
users that subscribed under its 1-year rebated access plan are counted,
even though they may not actually pay for the service at this time. This
is not a perfect science by any means, but we have to start somewhere,
don't we?
In
all fairness to NetZero and Juno, let's take a look at the stats,
both in terms of fee-based users and active users. If we look at
active user data gathered during the first quarter of this year
(left), then NetZero and Juno Online combined would be the
second largest dialup ISP in the U.S., when the merger is completed
and the two become United Online. In terms of the number of individuals
that have signed up to use these free-fee hybrids, some 24.5 million
Americans know who NetZero or Juno Online are and what they provide.
Unfortunately, nobody really knows who United Online will be or
what it is capable of becoming.
In
equal fairness to all other dialup ISPs providing fee-based services
in the U.S., we need to rank NetZero+Juno by paying subscribers
(right). As you can see, the soon-to-be United Online now
ranks as the eighth largest dialup ISP in the U.S., which means
the combined fee-paying users of NetZero and Juno Online is enough
to move them past Bell South and Verizon, but not ahead of AT&T
WorldNet services. When last reported NetZero claimed some 116,000
paying subscribers and Juno Online claimed 920,000 paying users.
In order to catch up with market leader America Online, United Online
would have to achieve an transition rate of 92 percentmoving
millions of free clients to fee-based programs.
Of course, United Online would only have to convert 14 free users
to paying clients out of every 100 members in order to catch up
with MSN and EarthLink.
So United Online is capable of playing in the upper echelon of U.S.
narrowband fee-based services. But speaking of fees, if NetZero+Juno
Online continue to change less than $10 for semi-unlimited monthly
accessUnited Online would have to convert 28 free users to
fee-paying subscribers in order to catch up with EarthLink and MSN
in terms of monthly recurring revenues.
Now, we'll just have to wait and see what United Online does with
the ability to reach out and activate more than 25 million users.
Considering the fact that NetZero and Juno embrace advertisers like
no other ISPs, all they have to do now is build an enticing portal
to increase web traffic.
*
AOL
Time Warner U.S. Subscriber figures reflect the ISP's reported worldwide
customer counts, less international subscribers, less Compuserve subscribers,
and less Gateway.net subscribers.
±
Juno
Online and NetZero now report fee-based users.