Most of fiber's double-digit growth over the next five years will be driven by the more economical multi-mode fiber that appeals more to large networks than to small ones.

by Bob Woods of OpticallyNetworked.com [August 30, 2001]

Even though copper cabling is expected to dominate the telecommunications market over the next five years, the compound-annual growth rate (CAGR) of fiber-optic cabling will be at 23 percent through 2005, according to a new study from Cahners In-Stat Group.

Fiber will reach almost 69 million ports shipped in 2005 for the combined LAN (Local Area Network) switch and NIC (Network Interface Card) markets, In-Stat also said.

"Real growth opportunities lie with fiber even though copper is much more prevalent to the desktop," said Lauri Vickers, senior analyst with In-Stat's Voice & Data Communications Group, in a statement.

"Fiber to the desktop is still an expensive proposition however; its costs and benefits, relative to the proposed available copper upgrade options, make it the far wiser choice when the time comes for an organization to pull new cable. This, combined with fiber's superior security and quality attributes, will drive fiber further into the enterprise."

Other conclusions from In-Stat:

• The transition to fiber will be a slow process, as organizations will not immediately begin to rip out their copper cabling infrastructure in favor of fiber. However, as organizations max out the capabilities of existing Category 5 or 5e cabling, the new cable of choice will be fiber. Fiber will account for approximately 13 percent of all the ports in the LAN in 2005, up from 11 percent in 2001.
• All forms of cabling to the desktop will decline as wireless technologies improve. The elimination of desktop MAC (Move, Add and Change) costs is a powerful inducement to adopt wireless. Wireless will account for approximately 4 percent of all the ports in the LAN in 2005, up from 1 percent in 2001.
• Most of fiber's double-digit growth over the next five years will be driven by the more economical multi-mode fiber that appeals more to large networks than to small ones.

The report, "Copper, Fiber & Wireless: How Will We Hook Up," provides end-user survey results and five-year forecasts for fiber, copper and wireless ports. It assesses technology, user preferences and market trends impacting the overall usage of copper and fiber cabling and wireless technology in the LAN. The report is priced at $2,995.

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