Market Guide to
Fixed Wireless Access

The ARC Group ferrets out emerging trends in fixed wireless access. This executive summary takes a look back in time to extrapolate fixed wireless trends in the near future.

by Tony Crabtree
of the ARC Group: Analysis-Research-Consultancy
[December 27, 2000]

The aim of this report is to provide a clear guide to the emerging market for Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) technologies. Particular attention has been paid to the positioning of this new technology within the wider broadband access market, with comparative analysis and detailed forecasts for each of the main competing and complementary access technologies.

The forecast data presented for FWA, DSL, Cable, two-way satellite and fiber access technologies has been developed entirely from original sources, and supported by published statistics and market intelligence. The forecasts for FWA are presented by geography (nine key regions), customer premises (household and businesses—small, medium, large and Multiple Tenant Units (MTUs)), and by key frequency bands (Unlicensed, <10 GHz, <38 GHz and >37 GHz). A service revenue forecast has also been included, with associated pricing assumptions.

Selected results of the ARC Broadband Access Survey 2000 have also been included in the report. The analysis of the survey reflects the views of fifty two selected broadband industry executives and addresses a number of key issues currently facing the industry.

Included in the report are the views of respondents regarding current and future bandwidth requirements for households and SMEs (Small & Medium Enterprises), both in the upstream and downstream directions, through to 2005, are included.

The importance of strategic alliances, future revenue generating services, and the expectations of Operators of their vendors are also graphically represented and ranked. The survey group was also asked what they felt were the main challenges facing the introduction of broadband fixed wireless access.

Opportunities for fixed wireless access
The significance and impact of broadband communications via fixed wireless access has only recently been recognized by the wider communications industry, and it is only over the past six to twelve months that significant commercial deployments have occurred. The period 2000 / 2001 represents a turning point for the industry, with both equipment vendors and operators moving rapidly to develop specific market segments, and gain substantial market penetration. In July 2000, Cisco Systems issued a statement of direction that succinctly captured this new mood:

This wider realization of the commercial potential for Fixed Wireless has occurred as the industry enters a critical stage in its development. Moving from a pre-deployment / developmental stage, the industry has rapidly shifted into a phase of substantial commercial expansion. The availability of capable and reasonably priced equipment, and the licensing of spectrum around the world have been critical to this rapid evolution. Rising Internet usage, and an acute demand for fairly priced high speed access has also contributed to this phase of high growth. The billions of dollars now being invested in this sector, and the media coverage of the new license allocations have served to raise the profile of the industry and the expectations thereof.

ARC Group forecasts that fixed wireless deployments to both households and business premises will reach almost 28 million customers by 2005. The market by then is estimated to be worth almost $42 billion in service revenues, and will have penetrated almost all developing and advanced world economies.

Fixed Wireless Service Revenues by Region 1999-2005

The breadth of opportunity afforded to service providers by utilizing fixed wireless technologies is extremely large. This is due, in part, to the flexibility, scalability and modularity inherent in the technology.