"Hi Dave, I work on the Merrill Lynch telecom equipment team and
was wondering if you could add me to your DSL prime distribution list.
A colleague pointed it out to as being a great resource. Many thanks,
hope to meet you at our annual conference next year." The response DSL
Prime gets from Wall Street continues to astonish me, and I repeat my
reminder that I'm not looking at the same issues that drive stock prices.
"Off to France... Hi, a response to your mail might be delayed. I'll
be back from holidays on September 25th." When I got that note early
in September, I again envied the European vacation time.
"I have some concerns about Marvell and their 'growth'. This is either
very good management and integration similar to the Cisco acquisition
era or [something less attractive]. As far as I know, Marvell's markets
are highly competitive and not prone to excessive profits so I wonder
where the money to buy companies comes from and how long they may be
able to keep it up." A good question I have no information on the company's
underlying finances. All I do know is that Marvell has hired some excellent
DSL engineers.
"This is to safeguard customers and is in no way influenced by call
usage patterns as you suggest," was the pr person's comment when I suggested
his company policy was influenced by how much they earned on different
customers. I shouldn't have replied "I also believe in the tooth fairy,"
however.
Briefs
French fiber gear maker Ekinops sees opportunity in the many older
DSLAMs stilling in the field. CEO Didier Bredy believes Ekinops' ability
to handle both today's Gig-E and the older ATM will prove a major advantage.
3.8 million of Taiwan's 7.3 million homes take ADSL, according to
Chunghwa. Subscriber growth is down from about 200,000 to 100,000 per
quarter, but upgrades to higher speeds and fiber are in the works. Add
approximately 700,000 cable modem customers (Point Topic figure), and
62 percent of Taiwanese homes have broadband.
Sources in India confirm that AT&T is moving even more software
jobs abroad.
Press
Martin Geddes thinks differently, posting Backhanded
Business, "Why do operators call the difference between the point-of-sale
retail price of a handset and its wholesale cost a subsidy? After all,
the users are clearly paying for the whole thing. Indeed, it looks more
like a covert hire-purchase agreement that avoids all the relevant laws
by pretending that all the payments are really for mobile service, not
hardware. … Furthermore, a subsidy implies you get nothing in return.
In reality, the operator gets considerable control over the handset
design and distribution, enabling them to cut off escape routes round
operator toll gates, such as Bluetooth transfer of pictures. Perhaps
many operators are really primarily retailers and finance companies,
and the network is an unfortunate capital-draining side business? But
then again, how would we ever know …"
People
Alex Salkever at Business Week was one of the best telecom reporters,
and now is bringing his earnestness and capacity for research to creating
www.hawaiirama.com, with reviews
of little walked beaches and other surprises about the Islands. Bill
Kennard should buy him a dinner at La Mer.
China Netcom has three quarters of a billion dollars in accounts
payable over 180 days. I believe this is one of a group of accommodations
from suppliers that CT and CN use to stabilize earnings and cash flow.
I believe in some cases suppliers also maintain goods as "inventory"
that have delivered to Chinese telcos and installed, delaying the billing.
Besides various rumors, I've seen traces of such practices in the financial
statements of some suppliers. This adds enormous to the volatility of
Chinese equipment suppliers, of course, but seems to be an expected
part of some relationships.
Copyright 2006 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.
"The power of the printing press belongs solely to those who own the
presses"
A.J. Leibling
The Internet is the cheapest printing press ever invented.