DSL Prime: 100 Mbps in North America and Europe

Technology originally designed for Asia, which leads the world in broadband speeds, is finally arriving in the broadband backwaters.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [December 5, 2005]

"We will be offering free Internet access in the city of New Orleans"
—Mayor Nagin

100/100 VDSL chips are reaching the market. Deutsche Telecom wants to enable 3 million homes at 50/10 or higher as soon as possible, preferably in the next seven months before the football championship. France is ready to follow, and I learned from Mathias Kurth that British Telecom is discussing VDSL with their regulator. In the U.S., Cox Cable in New Orleans is jumping ahead with a 3-gigahertz cable system, ready to take on BellSouth's planned fiber rebuild.

Free wireless in New Orleans and San Francisco should inspire other cities to get everyone connected. If necessary, pay for it out of the public safety budget. "The debate over whether to add a WiFi/Wimax network should be over," I wrote two months ago. Whether built by the city, the cable guy, the telco, or a new entrant, the redundant network will save lives when emergencies hit.

Amsterdam is beginning a municipal fiber build that will soon be noticed by cities everywhere. Paul Morris and UTOPIA are doing the same in Utah. Around the world, telcos are fighting this competition the wrong way, with political power. A far better answer is to deliver first-class service yourself, like Verizon's FIOS. The Bells have an RFP out for GPON fiber, 4-10 times faster than Verizon's BPON. Serving customers well can be a great business strategy.

Say hello to this round fellow with a beard at the UBS Media Conference in New York or the FCBA/PLI policy event in D.C. At FCBA, Mike Powell is going to make one of his first D.C. presentations since leaving the FCC. I also look forward to seeing many of you at the FCBA Chairman's Dinner, but please don't think that means I have special access. The event is huge, and open to all at a moderate price; I even have a friend who may still have a ticket if you need one.

More likely, I'm going to become persona non grata in some D.C. circles. I feel strongly phone rates should not be going up. Because everyone needs to connect, an increase in phone rates is like a tax. The Republicans were right to call school surcharge "The Gore Tax," but at least it had a public purpose. They will hate me when I name the coming $50 to $100 per year increase in telco charges (ICC/SLIC/USF) after the incumbent leader.

Deutsche Telekom Wants U.S. Style Deal: No competition For VDSL
"100/100" to apartments, "50/10" to low rise
DT is going to 3 million homes ASAP and probably extending across the country rapidly. They plan a nominal 100/100 Mbps to apartment buildings and 50/10 Mbps in low-rise districts. In U.S. terms, this is fiber to the curb, not the much cheaper "fiber to the node".

For high rises, service will be fiber to the basement with full 30 megahertz bandwidth, which Ikanos and Infineon have publicly demonstrated can deliver 100/100 Mbps the hundred meters or so typical. Low-rise areas will more often be served with a lower profile better able to reach 1,000 to 2,000 feet, aiming for a maximum 50/10 Mbps bandwidth to the customer. Siemens and ECI are current key suppliers, both promising delivery in volume Q1. Infineon has the inside track on the chip contract because they designed for the German ISDN standard.

The new Markel government as part of their initial program agreed to allow DT a monopoly on their VDSL rollout, because DT threatened to drop the project and cut 5,000 jobs, and Markel was too cowardly to call the bluff. DT intends to roll VDSL whether they get government concessions or not, since they require it for video. The competition is scaring them, taking lines by the million. The EU has already called this inappropriate, as has the current head of RegTP, Mathias Kurth.

VoIP at 17 percent in Lesotho
Despite poverty and a 35 year life expectancy
VoIP is expanding rapidly in an economy still primarily based on subsistence agriculture, especially livestock. Unemployment is 48 percent, so 35 percent of male wage earners are in South Africa, often as miners, per CIA Factbook. They need to call home, and Russell Southwood's Balancing Act on line newsletter reports a Telecom Lesotho estimate that 17 percent of calls are now VoIP. Southworth suggests the uptake is driven by rates of $0.31 per minute to South Africa and as high as $2 per minute to the rest of the world.

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

"The power of the printing press belongs solely to those who own the presses"
—A.J. Leibling

The Internet is the cheapest printing press ever invented.