DSL Prime: 100 Mbps Bell South VDSL2

Don't try to order it tomorrow, but the nicest of the RBOCs plans to deliver real speed in the future.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [June 3, 2005]

"Connect possibilities, enrich knowledge and inspire progress."
—Dr. Hessa Al-Jaber in Qatar

SBC has just announced a $14.95/month special, a few days after I wrote, "Big Ed ... You're promoting $19.95 service, and you'd do an even better job saving voice revenues if you went to $14.95." S.B., you don't have to go looking for a deep throat inside your company—it was purely coincidence. The press reports say new customers only, preventing your 5 million loyal users from getting the same price, so this isn't the price break the U.S. is hoping for.

Best news is COO Stephenson telling Reuters SBC will go from 80 percent to 90 percent coverage in 12 to 18 months. Perhaps that will inspire BellSouth to go beyond 84 percent, and perhaps get Verizon back to their 90 percent goal for the beginning of 2005 (they are being coy about the current figure). Qwest, Sprint, and some of the other regionals are even farther behind.

Meanwhile, Europe is proving DSL competition can work, as Telefonica doubles DSL speeds at no increase in price. Expect similar moves from British Telecom as Tiscali and Cable & Wireless/Bulldog complete their DSLAM deployments to half the homes in the UK. The Bulldog is currently offering an 8 Mbps service for sixteen pounds. Even Deutsche Telecom is reacting, planning a VDSL trial finally.

China, however, is slowing down. China Telecom President Wang Xiaochu tells Dow Jones they will exceed last year's 6.6 million net DSL additions, but that is far less than expected. Modem orders this quarter have plummeted. Growth is still substantial—they've ordered 1 million DSLAM ports from ZTE and over 2 million from others, and have reached 40,000 IP TV customers in "trials."

Expect, soon, another issue of Jennie's Future of TV.net, a Fiber News, and a long look at regulation. The U.S. is planning to sell off its birthright, control of crucial spectrum, for far too long and far too little. That's as unthinking as selling the Grand Canyon for condominiums, or the Mall in front of the U.S. Capitol for office towers.

"Broadband for All" in Qatar
Dr. Hessa Al-Jaber, Secretary General, has a simple goal: "Broadband for All" with high bandwidth and competitive tariffs. She has crucial support: the chairman of ictQatar, His Highness the Heir Apparent of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani. Their objective "is to create an advanced information-based society that will improve the quality of life of everyone in Qatar and will enhance the social and economic development of the country."

The picture of the launch event featured glorious Arab flowing robes, not western business suits. Despite the different culture, the goals could come from a British policy paper, a "mission to create an advanced knowledge society through ICT infrastructure and skills development, the delivery of e-services and the establishment of a regulatory environment that promotes growth and benefits citizens, businesses and the government."

BellSouth FTTC:
Three times SBC speed, cheaper than Verizon FTTH
VDSL at 100 Mbps symmetric the last 250 feet
Don't try order it tomorrow, and don't expect it in your particular neighborhood even in the next year or two unless you're one of the luckier BellSouth customers. But CTO Bill Smith's company is moving ahead to the state of the art, the 100 Mbps symmetric VDSL2 service standardized last week in Geneva. Stephen Lawson of IDG reports the architecture will be fiber to the curb, typically 250 feet, and VDSL2 the rest of the way. Ikanos and Metalink demonstrated working ships delivering 100/100 at Fast Net in March for over 500 feet, although BellSouth is prudently speaking of 50 to 100 Mbps, knowing real world results may not match the demonstration.

Competition coming 2006 and 2007 from 50 to 100 Mbps cable is driving this decision. BellSouth's Hank Kafka saw the 100/100 demo at Fast Net, as well as John Chapman's Cisco presentation of how cable can easily move to a shared gigabit. I wouldn't claim that day's presentations influenced him—BellSouth has a fiber/coax deployment and knows the technology well—but anyone who heard Mattson wouldn't want to be competing in 2008 with a network tuned for 15 mbps download and only 1 mbps upload.

No details available yet on BellSouth's timing or deployment particulars, but deploying a network like this will take several years, minimum. BellSouth, even if the Board authorizes a jump in capital spending, would be doing remarkably well if it reaches even half their homes with this speed by 2008.

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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