DSL Prime: A Billion Bits

Other technologies in addition to GPON promise faster downloads speeds and the potential triple play.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [April 12, 2005]

G-EPON—$200/home, going to $100
Huang of UTStarcom says the price is right
Asia, as well as the smaller U.S. carriers, has generally chosen EPON, with Yahoo BB/Japan Telecom the first with a large order for G-EPON. The Yahoo BB volume has enabled UTStarcom to bring costs down dramatically, and at Fast Net he said volume customers could already expect a price of $200/home. Huang was confident the price would drop in half in the next few years, making G-EPON probably as cheap as POTS + DSL, if the fiber is in place. BPON/GPON makers believe their will prove similar to G-EPON, in an apples to apples comparison. Today's BPON costs $300-350 even in Verizon quantities, but includes outdoor hardened cases, power backup, POTS, and the cost of the third wavelength for RF video.

Although NTT is active in FSAN, Japan is currently deploying mostly EPON, as have some of the smaller telcos in the U.S. and the municipal builds now beginning in Europe.

How fast is a billion bits?
20-100 meg easy, 200-500 possible
A gigabit of download shared among 300 modems allows 20-200 meg download speeds at all but the most congested times. 2.4 Gbps GPON, dynamically split among 32 users, would allow each user to reach 500 meg easily. Even statically divided, since many users will only need standard video (or none at all), it will be easy to offer 200 meg to the users who require that speed.

Today's U.S. broadband networks are provisioned at 20-1 to 50-1. That works well because Web http servers rarely go faster than 1 meg, and users spend time reading the screen before the next download. Not everyone is on line working 24/7. Most p2p is limited by upload speeds. We're only beginning to see video streams faster than 300K.

30 meg cable systems shared among 400 homes typically are not fully loaded, and deliver 2 and even 7 meg to each home when requested. Only a small minority of servers can go that fast, such as Akamai downloads of the latest Microsoft updates and games. When video volumes grow, including IP video from the provider, that extreme over-subscription will have to be toned down. But the next gen architectures—GPON and DOCSIS 3.0/NGNA—are ready to go 50 times faster than we average today.

DSL Reports: Getting it right
The "gripe list" continues with a plea to keep DSL lines running well. As I write, my DSL is down. Verizon tech support answered quickly and courteously, but didn't have the means to find or solve the problem. Diagnostic tools like Aware's Dr. DSL, many of them built in to the newer standards, would allow fast troubleshooting. The DSL lead at a Bell once told me the biggest mistake they made was not including proper test gear. It was a costly mistake.

From DSL Reports:
#7—Treat technical support more seriously
If you can't afford personal attention for customers, or you can but you have to outsource to people paid $1 an hour to read scripts, then provide excellent central network status pages and automated phone answering messages that honestly and accurately communicate outages."

When my line first went down last night, I spent an hour checking it, replacing cables and modems, etc. The Verizon website, which I reached on dialup, did not report any local outage. When I reached tech support, they quickly told me I had been wasting my time; the local system was down, not just my service. Good to know, but it would have been even better if I hadn't wasted an hour because the web site didn't have accurate information. db

Gripe Number Six: Stop trying to kill the messengers
Employees *will* talk about their jobs, poorly outsourced services, and new customer-hostile procedures. Information will come out one way or another, particularly if it is negative and of an interest to a wide audience. Legal threats against public discussion sites or against employees, who post on their own time, are doomed over the long run. They are also noticed by customers who are quick to conclude that a company cares more about its image, than it does about customer service.

Companies such as Speakeasy, SBC (*yes* db), Cogeco, Charter, and Optimum Online have openly supported employees active on message boards here, with great results." Verizon, which Bode cites as a resistant company, is being outsold 3-1 by Cablevision's Optimum Online, and remains far behind SBC.

Gripe Number Five: Fix it right the first time—and quickly
How many of you find that your new connection is unreliable: you face horrible packet loss, and schedule an appointment—often taking entire day off work—to have a technician troubleshoot your connection."

Class D brings down DSLAM chip power
Infineon delivers more ports per watt
DSLAM power demands are critical, so Infineon is getting good response to their new CO chip set using Class D power for the line driver, the key power-hungry component. Class D amps are now taking the high end audio market by storm, but extending Class D from the 20 KHz of audio to the 2.2 MHz of ADSL2+ is a challenge. Low power demand makes it possible to feed remote DSLAMs over phone pairs, much cheaper than a full electric hookup. That technology shift last year is the base for Project Lightspeed and other field builds. In the exchange, low power allows density; both in Manhattan and China, some COs are passing 20,000 DSL connections, and need every square foot possible. CO space everywhere is at a premium, as is the clean power need full back-up.

The actual cost of electricity, $4 to $10 per subscriber per year, is a major contributor to operating expenses, as well as heat and reliability problems. I don't have the testing lab to verify precisely Infineon's 10 to 30 percent lower claim, nor the skill—I'm not an engineer. I also remember every chip announcement has claimed "lower power and more density," so I'm very cautious with manufacturer's claims. But from what I can judge, Imran Hajimusa of Infineon should be busy demoing this one. Samples now, full production shortly.

At least 20 million, and probably 40 million, ADSL2+ DSLAM ports will ship in 2005. Every exchange in France is set for an upgrade, and major builds are announced in BellSouth, Bell Canada, and India. The big networks in China are ready to switch the price is right, and DSLAM chip makers are preparing to bid around $5 to $7 per port in major volume.

VDSL2: Soon, there will be three
Infineon announces they will announce
"Infineon would 'very, very soon' outline details on its first parts conforming to the emerging VDSL2 standard," VP Christian Wolff tells John Walko of EE Times. As previously reported, Broadcom has told customers they will soon have the needed upgraded firmware, while Texas Instruments major UDSL effort is promised to have chips in time for SBC late 2005 trials. There's at least one definite other chip I know, and at least three more planned.

More on VDSL2 interoperability testing should begin yesterday
"Broadcom is ready and waiting for either Ikanos or Conexant to agree to do interop testing….Can you help accelerate the interop efforts with a call to action?" came an e-mail from the company. Rajesh Vashist of Ikanos, today's VDSL2 leader, a month ago in my interview supported interoperability testing beginning as soon as possible. Conexant/Globespan, with the other announced chip, tells us "We would be delighted to participate in VDSL interoperability trials." Infineon is ready to join in, I believe.

Now, let's make that happen. There are plenty of excuses to wait (standard isn't ratified till May, no line simulators, no test standards agreed), but a much better reason to come together in weeks, not months. The customers want the chips. SBC is committed to deploying in 2005, but everyone else tells me they want more test results. Telcos representing tens of millions of lines tell they want to move to VDSL2 "as soon as it's ready, but no sooner."

Steve Kingdom, new President of the DSL Forum, works for NTL, a test lab, and has the right experience to bring forward the effort. The University of New Hampshire is ideal, if they can work on an expedited schedule. If each company sent three engineers and their latest equipment for a week every month to a joint review, $100 million of chip sales will happen much faster.

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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