DSL Prime: Don't Let the Research Die

While South Korea surges in high tech DSL deployment, an icon of U.S. research is probably for sale.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [August 26, 2004]

We're on our way to the PFF conference, where speakers include a dozen top policymakers. They are nearly all smart and hardworking, but essentially none of them have any experience in either telecom or media. That makes it very hard for them to judge which of the world class lobbyists also speaking are telling the truth and which spouting eloquent nonsense. With 3500 more jobs going at Nortel, basic phone rates still going up, and U.S. broadband falling further behind the rest of the world, it's no time for "business as usual."

I make a modest suggestion. At least some of the commissioners, and their peers around the world, should actually know the industry from long experience. Realistically, none of those I'm suggesting have a chance, and few would want to give up their current jobs. All would be extremely qualified. I included top five industry CTOs, two top wall streeters, some professors and analysts, and Jeff Pulver, a friend and also a respected industry entrepreneur. But think how much better the FCC would run with folks like Jeff, Dave Farber, Bill Smith, Niel Ransom or Dave Clark. In our dreams.

Say hello to the round fellow with at beard if you're at PFF. Even if you're one of the FCC lawyers or lobbyists. You should be part of the solution, just not all the leaders.

Korea Approaching Two Million VDSL Lines
What the world needs now
"I expect more than 70 per cent of our households will have Internet connections with access speeds of 20 megabits per second, which will allow them to download movies to watch on their high-definition TVs," Chin Daeje, South Korea's minister of information and communications. "By 2010, the bulk of Korean households will have migrated to 100 megabits per second."

Korea Telecom reports 1.6 million VDSL customers already, and just ordered from Tellion $25 million more of long reach VDSL. That will be Metalink's QAM chips going 50+ mbps downstream and 30 Mbps upstream on short lines, and giving ADSL like performance at longer distances.

Metalink just announced Fujitsu is ready to ship the 100 Mbps version, joining Ikanos with a high speed alternative to fiber all the way home. KT has traditionally split between DMT and QAM to make sure they have enough suppliers to get the best price. Japan is coming on-stream heavily as well, while Canada is expanding rapidly.

My e-mail has been buzzing with comments on Ikanos' IPO, a company that inspires strong opinions. My takeaway remains they have proven extraordinary strength in engineering, dramatically beating ST, TI, Conexant and others to delivering DMT ADSL. Ikanos regularly is announcing substantial sales.

On the other hand, weaker competition in Europe is my explanation why Wolfgang Schmitz of DT tells me VDSL is not in his plans. That's also the official answer from Jean Huet of France Telecom, although others at FT are more scared of Free and are thinking differently. Belgacom is about to take the European lead.

Telcordia for Sale
Don't let the research die
If any single person invented DSL, it was Joe Lechleider at Bellcore, where George Hawley also worked and Ken Kerpez continues important research. Bellcore also supported John Cioffi's early work. The Bells sold it to SAIC, a defense contactor, in 1997, because some CFOs think "the long run" is the quarter after next.

The Daily Deal's Vipal Monga and Chris Nolter believe SAIC is working with J.P. Morgan and hoping for over $1 billion. They guessed the usual buyout firms are interested, along with IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Amdocs and Comverse. Light Reading's Phil Harvey advanced the story, pointing to Telcordia's Bell-granted OSMINE monopoly and patent litigation as key assets. Harvey pointed to the kind of bad management that contributed to the company's decline. He noted "I ought to point out that Telcordia and Light Reading have had somewhat strained relations on occasions. … Telcordia still expects journalists to write whatever it tells them to write. When Light Reading hasn't done this, Telcordia has withdrawn press access. "

Light Reading's apparent sin: accurately calling OSMINE a "de facto monopoly." I take the attitude that when a company is refusing to answer reasonable questions, there's a good chance they have something to hide. I remember well that AOL and MCI were two of the hardest to get straight answers from, and we know their results. I've also had to do most AT&T reporting from third parties, and I note their bonds are now rated junk.

(Ironically, there's a Bell PR guy who keeps calling me an AT&T stooge, when actually I can't get anything from them beyond polite obfuscation on most stories.)

Early in the Qwest saga, Joe Nacchio pulled his ads from the Denver Post to intimidate them, and also from other companies in the same group. It was a key sign the trouble was deep.

Copyright 2004 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

"The power of the printing press belongs solely to those who own the presses"
—A.J. Leibling

The Internet is the cheapest printing press ever invented.