DSL Prime News: The Inside Source

DSL technology continues to improve quickly, and Asian nations, especially China, are driving chip demand.

by Dave Burstein DSL Prime [April 28, 2003]

"I'm busy filling orders." —Christian Wolff, Infineon.

Analog Devices is temporarily in shortage for modem chips, Digitimes reports. Niel Ransom of Alcatel reports spot shortages. Nearly all these issues can be resolved in 30 to 60 days, because chip foundries and other suppliers have excess capacity, according to several involved. But it's a remarkable turnaround, as orders were far above forecast. "China is driving a huge addition to demand," says Bob Burke of Samsung. "We're ramping production of modem chips sharply."

Korea, meanwhile, is moving so rapidly to VDSL they have surplus ADSL equipment. I was offered this week 40,000 surplus USB modems, new in box, Globespan chips, for $23 each. Contact me if interested.

Fast Net Futures was extraordinary. Make sure to put it on your calendar for next year. The buzz was over DSM, ADSL2+, which VDSL, how to serve remotes, when to move to fiber, multichannel video is working around the world, VOD works but Hollywood is keeping all the money, fixed wireless is working, fiber costs are down dramatically, and cable networks will add features so fast DSL will have a hard time keeping up.

Next Telecom Insider includes Vonage Funding: Best or Worst Deal of the Year (don't invest until you read this); the $25 billion Difference between SBC and Verizon; changing reporting, moves to academia, and more.

China is projecting 4 million new subs this year, according to sources in English. But there's more to the story, and I hope my readers in China provide some more facts for my next report. E-mail help appreciated.

Charlie Hoffman: Covad's splitting with AT&T
Still in the game for consumers with AT&T or MCI local phones
Charlie Hoffman has nearly 2,000 COs equipped and networked for consumer DSL, while AT&T and MCI have UNE voice customers who may want DSL and the Bells are refusing them service. Hoffman says AT&T and MCI came to him after the FCC decision, and soon offered very attractive line-splitting terms (under $1 per line). Assuming AT&T and MCI win 5 million UNE customers and 40 percent of them are servable by Covad, a 5 percent take rate would be 100,000 customers. This does not provide competition for the 80 to 90 percent of phone users with Bell lines, of course.

DSM "ADSL3"
Results possible just by upgrading the DSLAM
One of the largest telcos in the world has requested a bid from their major supplier to supply DSM software modifications to DSLAMs. A second Bell tells me they are very interested; a third is about to request a briefing. "ADSL3" David Benini of Aware calls it, as Cioffi is convincing many that DSM techniques can dramatically improve performance at both modest and VDSL speeds. The increased reliability serving 300 Kbps to 800 Kbps at 15,000 feet or so is the current attraction for the Bells; the expectation of a reliable 2 Mbps video stream at 8,000 to 10,000 feet is also exciting.

Questions abound, of course, beyond the ordinary doubts of moving lab work to production. How do multiple DSLAMs co-operate? How much does a T-1 line or SDSL reduce the benefits? What about a CLEC ADSL, not part of the co-ordination scheme? How much can be done in software, and how much requires new modems and other hardware? Cioffi writes "There is a non-cooperative form that needs no coordination. Obviously, yet more gain occurs when the DSLAM can coordinate lines. A good portion of early activity does not need coordination. ... gains on the simple early DSM can encourage manufacturers and operators to spend the money to put more into their next-gen products."

But because DSM improves performance at very slight cost, providers are considering moving quickly. An early, totally unconfirmable guess is that a 2 to 4 percent increase in equipment costs will result in at least ten times that percentage in reliable throughput. Cioffi's presentation is here [.ppt].

CAP planning to go dynamic
While TI believes DSM requires "DMT only", the advocates of CAP VDSL were very clear they were considering techniques to work in a DSM environment as well. With fewer bands and possible problems with retraining, the technology will require adjustments, but Christian Wolff of Infineon's comments let the audience infer a solution was close.

Voyan's vector chip design for sale
Voyan, a chip design company, developed a prototype vector chip that convinced several systems vendors it delivered dramatically improved performance when bonding multiple lines. Engineers who worked on it spoke highly, but with multiline technologies (Actelis, Hatteras, Spediant, Symmetricom) finding market slowly, they discontinued development. They are now seeking buyers for the technology. An observer writes "I am sorry to see them go, but just a bit too early in trying to promote the ideas. Timing is also important in pushing technology, as well as the ideas themselves."

Copyright 2003 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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