DSL Prime News: The Inside Source

Europe is surging forward, deploying DSL to residential users priced cheaper than dialup. Meanwhile the Bells have stopped funding DSL research in the U.S., giving cable a clear technological advantage.

by Dave Burstein DSL Prime [December 26, 2002]

"Broadband is well and truly at the heart of BT and we are absolutely committed"
—Pierre Danon of BT

BT promise 90 percent + coverage and lower prices to come. Europe is joining Asia in the DSL takeoff. Larger than life, a sexy 30 foot blond sells DSL on billboards across Italy. The service, called "Alice", costs only 13 Euros, plus 90 cents per hour connected. TI's Stefano Pileri predicts an amazing 85 percent of Italian Internet users will be on DSL by 2004.

Meanwhile, the UK plans call for opening an exchange every workday, France will soon have a million subs, while Belgium, Denmark, and Sweden expect some very good news in year end totals. Japan and China are both approaching 1 million new subscribers per quarter. The DSL Forum/Point-Topic report showed subscribers passed 30 million worldwide in September.

I hope to see the whole industry in San Jose April 1st and 2nd for our new conference, Fast Net Futures. The first confirmed speakers are CEO Charlie Hoffman of Covad, CEO Hong Lu of UTStarcom, CEO Faraj Aalei of Centillium, Professor John Cioffi of Stanford, and analyst Anton Wahlman of Needham. Save the dates, and watch this space for more details in a few weeks.

Fast Net Futures will run alongside Jeff Pulver's always interesting Voice on the Net conference. Consumer VOIP is disruptive technology ready to transform the industry. 500,000 Japanese have installed IP phones, which make free calls to other subscribers and 2 cent per minute calls across Japan and the United States. NTT and everyone else are responding in kind, Korea Telecom is virtually giving away LD in a defensive move, and Vonage is proving it works in the U.S. as well. Analog Devices has a reference design that adds two IP phones to a DSL router; the additional bill of materials is less than $30.

Happy holidays.

Italy prices to wipe out dialup
85 percent to switch by 2004
Larger than life, a sexy 30 foot blond sells DSL on billboards across Italy. The service, called "Alice", costs only 13 Euros, plus 90 cents per hour connected. Unlimited access is competitively priced. It's less than dial-up ISPs with local phone charges, and leads Stefano Pileri to predict an amazing 85 percent of Internet users will be on DSL by 2004.

TI is moving aggressively, because competitor Wind has installed DSLAMs in 400 local exchanges. Meanwhile, Fastweb/e.Biscom is one of the most interesting CLECs in the world, running fiber in Milan and offering service ten times as fast as Telecom Italia in cities across the country. In telco quantities, DSLAMs cost $100/port and less, modems perhaps $50, and DSL costs, including transit and hardware over three years, are only $5 to $10/month over dialup to deliver.

Marco Tronchetti Provera made DSL capital investment first priority in TI wireline, sees broadband provisioning as a key corporate competence. He's already claiming profitable growth despite the investment required.

January: 3 million in China
93 percent are business
He Zhiqing of China Telecom released the first official figures, passing 2 million subscribers Q3 and adding 800,000 more Q4. 93 percent of users are commercial; the just beginning consumer marketing should drive the market well past 1 million lines per quarter. Both China and Korea are building robust networks with the future in mind. The Chinese plan for 20 years of growth, designing manageability and remote upgrades from the beginning. The network is mixed between ATM (where in place) and pure IP (newer builds, with gigE.)

He Zhiqing praised Chinese vendors for cutting equipment costs 50 percent in the last year. Huawei, ZT, UTStarcom, are among them, but Alcatel Shanghai Bell, Nokia, and Siemens have also maintained market share with dramatic pricing.

Copyright 2002 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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